4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 37

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 19

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones ran ob at PIT 22 for 15 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.52 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model