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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 26

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 21-T.Norwood (39-M.Fitzpatrick) at CLE 37. 21-T.Norwood to CLE 37 for no gain (81-A.Hooper).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.14 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -1.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 31, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model