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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 10-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.42 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model