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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Landry (97-C.Heyward) [90-T.Watt].

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.70 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model