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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 36

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:46) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 88-P.Freiermuth (58-M.McDowell).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.01 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model