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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 36 yards to PIT 34, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-38-A.Green.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model