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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 73

Detroit Lions 0 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 3-J.Fox punts 37 yards to SEA 36, Center-47-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.03 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 31, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model