Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(14:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to DET 30, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 14-A.St. Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.12 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model