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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 17

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(7:39) (No Huddle) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to DET 15 for 2 yards (38-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO +3.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.93 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 17, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model