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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 39

Detroit Lions 15 – Seattle Seahawks 38

What Actually Happened

(6:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to SEA 8 for 31 yards (2-D.Reed).

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.57 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -2.11 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model