4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 29

Detroit Lions 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(9:44) (Shotgun) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 30-J.Williams up the middle to SEA 29 for no gain (52-D.Taylor, 90-B.Mone). Detroit challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model