Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 61

Detroit Lions 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

(4:18) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to SEA 23, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-F.Swain to SEA 26 for 3 yards (27-B.Price).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.22 EP
66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model