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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 33

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.88 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model