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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

2-14 HC Darrell Bevell
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

10-6 HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2022-01-02 · 13:00 ET Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 17.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

JAX
19.1%
NE
80.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.196 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): -0.054 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

JAX 16 9–23
–
NE 28 21–35
Projected margin: NE by 12 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

JAX

Nevin Lawson CB Out Illness
James O'Shaughnessy TE Out Hip
Dakota Allen LB Questionable Shoulder

NE

Nelson Agholor WR Out Concussion
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Adrian Phillips S Questionable Knee
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Hamstring
Nick Folk K Questionable left Knee
Damien Harris RB Questionable Hamstring
J.C. Jackson CB Questionable Elbow
Jakobi Meyers WR Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 10
–
NE 50

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:54 TD NE (5:54) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 37-D.Harris up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 37-Harris 13th rush TD of season, t-3rd most in franchise history. JAX 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 02:21 FG JAX (2:21) 15-M.Wright 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-13-J.Scott. JAX 3 – NE 7
  • Q2 12:07 TD NE (12:07) 37-D.Harris right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 37-Harris 14th rush TD of season, t-2nd most in franchise history. JAX 3 – NE 13
  • Q2 04:46 TD NE (4:46) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 17-K.Wilkerson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – NE 20
  • Q2 00:52 TD NE (:52) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10-Jones 20th TD pass of season, new franchise record for TD passes by a rookie (Plunkett 19, 1971). JAX 3 – NE 27
  • Q3 11:19 TD NE (11:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 17-K.Wilkerson for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – NE 34
  • Q3 02:45 TD NE (2:45) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – NE 40
  • Q4 11:50 FG NE (11:50) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 35th FG of season, t-4th most in franchise history (Gostkowski 2014). JAX 3 – NE 44
  • Q4 07:14 TD NE (7:14) 38-R.Stevenson left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – NE 50
  • Q4 03:56 TD JAX (3:56) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 33-D.Ogunbowale for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – NE 50

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:00) 13-J.Scott punts 38 yards to NE 30, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

    (2:21) 15-M.Wright 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-13-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 11 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:50) 13-J.Scott punts 34 yards to NE 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 11 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 33%

    (5:03) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to JAX 9, Center-49-J.Cardona. 7-T.Austin ran ob at JAX 12 for 3 yards (29-J.Bethel).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:22) 13-J.Scott punts 47 yards to NE 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 86%

    (11:50) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 35th FG of season, t-4th most in franchise history (Gostkowski 2014).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (11:01) 13-J.Scott punts 40 yards to NE 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

    See the full breakdown →