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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 28

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(:46) 2-E.McPherson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.84 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model