Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 45

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

(5:17) 10-K.Huber punts 27 yards to KC 18, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Robinson to KC 21 for 3 yards (48-A.Calitro).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.32 EP
76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.27 EP

KICK -1.05 EP

35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
65% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model