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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 45

Kansas City Chiefs 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 5-T.Townsend punts 31 yards to CIN 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.39 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model