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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.91 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 16, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model