Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(6:53) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to KC 8, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-M.Hardman to KC 37 for 29 yards (17-S.Morgan).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.95 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -2.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model