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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 23

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(6:00) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley left end pushed ob at LA 08 for 15 yards (24-T.Rapp).

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.44 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model