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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 40

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to LA 4, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.94 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model