Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 88

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Los Angeles Rams 7

(1:09) 4-S.Koch punts 61 yards to LA 27, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-B.Powell to LA 45 for 18 yards (46-N.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.02 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 88, worth -5.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model