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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 12

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Baltimore Ravens 19

What Actually Happened

(1:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 3-O.Beckham to BAL 07 for 5 yards (25-T.Young).

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.21 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 12, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP