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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(11:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 81-D.Smythe pushed ob at TEN 27 for 15 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.99 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model