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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to TEN 21, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 30 for 9 yards (45-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model