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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 17 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to MIA 2, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.95 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model