Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(10:07) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-J.Waddle to MIA 33 for 15 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.43 EP
68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model