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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 3 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(5:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep left to 11-D.Parker.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.29 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model