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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 24 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +3.35 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.02 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -1.13 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model