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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 87

Chicago Bears 14 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:54) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to NYG 45, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.91 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 87, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 45, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model