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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 3

Chicago Bears 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 2-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +3.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.30 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 3, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP