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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 65

New York Giants 3 – Chicago Bears 29

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to CHI 27, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-31-K.Crossen.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.05 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 23, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model