4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 9

Chicago Bears 29 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 64-A.Bars and 76-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 32-D.Montgomery. 32-D.Montgomery pass short middle intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 48-T.Crowder at NYG 0. 48-T.Crowder to NYG 17 for 17 yards (80-J.Graham).

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.16 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 9, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model