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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 4

Chicago Bears 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:14) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 11-D.Mooney for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.43 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 4, worth +0.59 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model