Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 68

New York Giants 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CHI 22, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 17-J.Grant to CHI 23 for 1 yard (20-J.Love). PENALTY on CHI-35-R.Nall, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 23.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.44 EP
73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model