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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 48

New York Giants 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to CHI 9, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-41-C.Myarick.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.74 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.65 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP