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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 79

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 3-J.Berry punts 57 yards to CHI 22, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-D.Newsome to CHI 33 for 11 yards (35-L.Stocker).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.00 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 36, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP