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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 24

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.68 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model