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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 24

Chicago Bears 14 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 2-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.74 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model