Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 3

(10:21) 3-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CHI 30, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-D.Newsome ran ob at CHI 47 for 17 yards (82-B.Ellefson; 46-M.Dorn).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model