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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 56

Chicago Bears 17 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to MIN 13, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.03 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model