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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 82

Chicago Bears 17 – Minnesota Vikings 31

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-D.Newsome pushed ob at CHI 31 for 13 yards (27-C.Dantzler).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.92 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 82, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 40, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.24 EP