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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 44

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(8:19) (Shotgun) 64-A.Bars reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left guard to MIN 40 for 4 yards (90-S.Richardson).

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.83 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model