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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 13
Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0
What Actually Happened
(10:38) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at MIN 18 for -5 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
The Three Options
GO
+2.79 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.86 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 13, worth -1.17 EP
KICK
+0.98 EP
- 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.10 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT
-1.02 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -1.02 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
