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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 2-D.Colquitt punts 22 yards to CIN 48, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-36-M.Stewart.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.63 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP