Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

(13:11) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 29 for no gain (17-S.Morgan).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.10 EP
64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -4.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model