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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to CIN 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP