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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 4

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 8-B.Allen pass short right to 25-C.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.98 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 4, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.53 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model