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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 49

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.20 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -2.15 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model