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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to CIN 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 20 for 11 yards (51-M.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.47 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 23, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model